Greg Barns: If they build a republic, the people will follow

by Greg Barns
The Australian, 4 Dec 2001

Last weekend's highly successful Corowa conference that resolved a way forward for Australia to have its own head of state should provide republicans with a sense of cautious optimism. Now it is incumbent upon those of us who participated in the conference to ensure that millions of other Australians feel the same sense of inspiration that enabled the 400 delegates to work out a possible pathway to success over one weekend.

Although we should not kid ourselves about how much work remains to be done to ensure that we become a republic within the next five to 10 years, it might surprise people to know just how much interest there is in the issue in places where one doesn't expect it.
I witnessed an example of this a fortnight ago deep in Bob Katter country – the Queensland town of Charters Towers. There, at a small Sunday afternoon gathering, the chairman of one of the local shires, a National Party stalwart, turned heads when he declared himself a republican. In the regional schools I have visited this year, young Australians take a keen interest in the issue and are eager to participate in the next debate our nation has on the matter.

Research by Curtin University professor of politics David Charnock, published in the latest Australian Journal of Political Science, provides some empirical basis for republican optimism. Charnock's conclusion is that the republican cause will succeed. He notes, however, that future votes on the issue "will require more careful thought, information campaigns and persuasion". In his view, "some kind of direct-election method will eventuate in due course".

Charnock's analysis of survey data from the Australian National University's Australian constitutional referendum study conducted last year, indicates just how critical the direct-election voters and supporters are to the ongoing debate. Fifty-five per cent of those polled by the study indicated that their first preference is for a directly elected president.

Add to this the 16 per cent who had direct election as their second most desired outcome after retaining the Queen and the potency of the direct-election push is abundantly evident.

Charnock's research also reveals that a proportion of voters followed their party leader's line rather than supporting their own choice. Only 36 per cent of Liberal voters voted for a republic, whereas the figure for Labor was 63 per cent. This correlation should give republicans hope – as Charnock notes, given that "it seems probable that future Liberal leaders will be more likely than [John] Howard to support a republic, this factor will probably be more favourable to a republic in the future".

The third influence on the 1999 vote is perhaps the most interesting. Charnock identifies a group of voters that will be crucial to the success of any future referendum and who sunk the previous vote by using it as a form of protest against "perceived special treatment of immigrants and Aborigines" and multiculturalism. This group of voters, many of whom identify themselves as direct electionists, are what he terms "nativists".

The nativists are politically conservative and essentially assimilationist in their outlook but they are also strongly patriotic. So one might expect them to support an Australian head of state but for the fact that they see the republic as being a distraction from the real issues facing Australia and as being part of the agenda they oppose.

So what do republicans take from this research?

First, we must break down the notion that the discussion about an Australian head of state is simply a distraction from day-to-day issues con fronting people. This will require constant activity by republicans in schools, community groups and media outlets to engage people in taking a stake in this issue by arguing its importance for our sense of pride in Australia and its achievements.

Second, the political establishment and those republicans who favour an indirect method of election or selection of a head of state must respond to the strong community desire for direct election by enabling a wide-ranging consultation process and, if necessary, for it to be one of two or more models to be put to the people in a plebiscite.

Finally, given that under the present leadership of the nation the republic will not emerge as an issue for at least four years, those of us who advocate change build a strong community-based movement through initiatives such as this weekend's Corowa conference – just as Federation received a decent shot in the arm through the creation of Federation leagues in the 1890s.

The resolution of the Corowa conference to call for extensive consultation with the Australian community and allow for Australians to have a choice of republican models through a plebiscite process might well be the answer.

Greg Barns is chairman of the Australian Republican Movement