REPUBLIC BACK ON POLITICAL AGENDA

Rodney Kendall, The Courier Mail
2 March 2004

There is no doubt that the cause of an Australian republic gained from Malcolm Turnbull's selection as the Liberal candidate for the safe federal seat of Wentworth at the weekend.

While there will always be those who resent his driving ambition and millionaire status, Turnbull's conviction about Australia's republican future is unquestioned.

He chaired the Republican Advisory Committee in 1994 and the Australian Republican Movement for seven years until he stepped down in 2000, has written extensively on the republic and was the chief spokesman for the "yes" vote during the 1999 referendum.

His description of Prime Minister John Howard on referendum night in 1999 as the man "who broke a nation's heart" clearly expressed the frustration of many Australians who see Australia's future as a republic.

While Howard and Turnbull apparently have buried the hatchet on this issue, such a reconciliation is basically irrelevant to the republican issue, as the next vote on the republic, be it plebiscites and/or a referendum, will take place after Howard has left the prime ministership. It won't happen before.

It is among the players in that post-Howard era that Turnbull will play a role.

At this stage Treasurer Peter Costello, a republican who campaigned well during the referendum and who spoke strongly on the issue on The Insiders on ABC-TV on Sunday, is the heir to the Liberal Party leadership and the prime ministership should the Liberals win the next election.

Turnbull is not Bob Hawke and will have to wait some time after entering parliament before he gets a shot at the leadership. But he will bring his strong conviction on the republic to the Liberal party room in parliament.

Of course, the other player in the republican field is ALP leader Mark Latham, who already has indicated he intends to campaign on the republic at the next election.

It is easy to imagine journalists approaching Turnbull as well as Costello for a comment or reaction when Latham raises the issue during the campaign. It is difficult to see Turnbull remaining silent when the approach is made.

Another new generation player and Liberal Party leadership contender is Tony Abbott, who will carry Howard's monarchist standard. Future party room jousts between Abbott and Turnbull should be fascinating.

In recent times Turnbull has downplayed the republic as he has sought to broaden his involvement into other issues, such as family, work and education, particularly through the Menzies Research Centre.

In an interview on Sunday, he indicated that a new drive for the republic would have to come from outside parliament.

Many, if not all, issues involve the interaction of the community and parliament. Just as in the 1990s when Paul Keating initially and Howard at the end provided a framework, the republic agenda needs both public and parliamentary support.

Since the referendum, public opinion polls consistently have shown majority support for an Australian republic, with a recent Newspoll revealing 57 per cent support for a second referendum. Meanwhile, a Senate inquiry into an Australian republic is taking submissions until March 31, before conducting Australia-wide hearings.

So there already exists outside and within parliament a growing, new momentum for an Australian republic.

The parliamentary element is also significant once a plebiscite or referendum is called.

In 1999, Howard was the first prime minister in Australian history to call a referendum and then campaign against it. This played a significant part in the final result.

But with Latham, Costello and now Turnbull, there is emerging a strong parliamentary dynamic for a change to an Australian republic in the post-Howard era.

Rodney C. Kendall is Queensland branch convener for the Australian Republican Movement.