Introduction
The
result of the November 1999 Republican Referendum demonstrated
a number of important points:
-
That a sizeable proportion of the Australian population
was willing to support a proposition for a Republic
in the teeth of a strong negative campaign.
-
That the “iron rule” of constitutional change requiring
a very high level of political and community consensus
remains in force.
-
That there are high levels of mis-understanding
in the Australian community about the operation
of the Nation’s Constitutional and Governmental
structures.
Beyond
this a number of reasonable assumptions can be made
such as:
-
A large majority of Australians do not see the Monarchy
as a relevant symbol or institution for modern Australia.
-
However a sizeable proportion don’t really care
given the symbolism and institutional role of the
Monarchy is believed to cause no identifiable material
detriment to a individual’s personal circumstances.
-
A not insignificant proportion of the No Vote came
from people attracted to the slogan of a directly
elected President.
-
Perceived “disunity” among Republican Advocates
was a major handicap for the Yes Campaign.
-
Significant levels of alienation of the political
process was effectively manipulated by the No Campaign
to bolster the No Vote.
The
Way Forward
The
means and ways to renew the Republican cause will require
careful analysis over the next few months. Some things
however are apparent:
-
The
emphasis should be on “process” rather than particular
models.
-
That high profile “No” Republicans and “Yes” Republicans
should have a dialogue on process to determine if
a agreed process can emerge.
-
The Queen’s visit in March/April 2000 will provide
a media focus on the Republic and might provide
an opportunity to either announce an agreed Republican
process or, if previously agreed, to mark a implementation
of part of the process eg. conference or gathering
of Republican Advocates.
The
Process
Since
the Referendum there has been apparent agreement that
the only clear way forward is to place before the people
a series of plebiscites which will firstly give guidance
on the respective support for the Monarchy and a Republic
and then give the Public a choice on differing Republican
models (assuming the first plebiscite showed support
for a change to a Republic).
Kim
Beazley’s proposal is for the first plebiscite to be
held in conjunction with the 2004 Federal Election,
with a second round at the 2007 Election. Presumably
a Referendum might be held some time between 2008 and
2010. Such a scenario is of course dependent on the
ALP wining a series of elections and remaining committed
to such a process.
To come into play it would also mean that John Howard,
having lost the 2004 Election, would be replaced as
Liberal Party Leader by presumably Peter Costello. It
is possible a Costello lead Liberal Party may take a
more pro-active and supportive position on a Republican
process but given the strong remaining support for the
Monarchy within the Liberal Party this is by no means
certain.
Equally,
while it is possible that there will be change over
time, it is difficult to foresee the National Party
adopting a pro-Republican position within the next five
to ten years without a plebiscite demonstrating strong
republican sentiment in the National’s core constituency.
While the position of the major political parties is
vital in terms of the commitment of the Governmental
structures to a reform process it is imperative that
as much as possible the Public be engaged in the reform
process. This will be challenging given the very strong
sense held by many people that the Republican issue
rates much lower than bread and butter matters such
as employment, community safety, health and education.
Given
the current position and the desirability to present
a way forward for Republican Supporters the following
concept is proposed:
1.
That the holding of an indicative plebiscite on support
for the Monarchy or a Republic be endorsed as the most
appropriate means to test Public attitudes;
2.
That discussions be held between Republican Advocates
ie. the ARM, the YES Coalition, the Yes and More Group,
Real Republic Group and Conservatives for an Australian
Head of State on the making of an initial combined statement
in favour of the indicative plebiscite and of the intention
to hold discussions during 2000 on an agreed reform
process;
3.
That a conference or gathering of key Republican Advocates
be held in March/April 2000 with the aim of developing
an agreed reform process;
4.
Without limiting the scope of the Republican Conference
the gathering might consider:
-
The
process necessary to develop a model to be placed
before the people in a Referendum;
-
The best means of engaging the Public in the reform
process;
-
A timetable for reform;
-
Political strategies ie. how to cement support for
the process within the ALP and build support within
the Conservative Parties;
-
Possibly the presentation of initial information
papers on various model options (these would not
be debated on their merits vis a vis each other
but rather would be produced to commence the long
process of working out the possible models for presentation
at a second round plebiscite).
Conclusion
In
the end the major challenge for Republican Advocates
may be the struggle to keep within the Republican fold
a large number of willing and active supporters able
to undertake grass roots activities. The disappointment
of the November Referendum and the prospect of a long
period before a further Referendum is quite disheartening
to many supporters and workers who have been involved
in the Republican campaign for a number of years.
On
the positive side there is no doubt that the process
leading up to the Referendum Campaign and the Campaign
itself has cemented the sense of the inevitability and
desirability of an Australian Republic. The challenge
will be to convert the sense of inevitability to reality
by presenting an achievable way forward. Reaching agreement
on process between the disparate Republican Advocates
will be a valuable first step in the still long journey
to an Australian Republic.
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