Younger People and the Republic
Article by John Warhurst in The Canberra Times
7 April 2006

Younger Australians, often categorised as generations Y (18-25 year olds) and X (26-39 year olds), seem to have a distinctive view of politics whatever issue.

My special interest in such younger people revolves around the republic-monarchy divide. When I speak to my classes at ANU about the issue I am always conscious of the need first to explain my own background and what the issue means for someone of my "baby boomer" generation, that is someone who grew up in the 1950s and 1960s. I can't take the personal experience of these mostly younger people for granted.

Critics of constitutional change commonly take mistaken pleasure in suggesting that support for a republic is falling among younger people. Yet they are at best only half right. Support for the monarchy is clearly falling faster. While that may sound counter-intuitive it is true. On any issue there are more than two positions. As well as support or opposition there is the often-forgotten very important third category of undecided/don't know/don't care.

Reporting of public opinion polls in the media is cursory at best, superficial and misleading at worst. This is true of the republic issue where editorialists and feature writers advance an adversarial and one dimensional interpretation.

The most common benchmark for public opinion on the republic is the annual Newspoll taken around Australia Day each year (there are better surveys, such as the Australian Election Survey, but this is the one that attracts most publicity). This year's poll was published in the Australian newspaper on 21-22 January and is available at www.newspoll.com.au. The one-line headline summary of the poll showed the republic leading the monarchy by 46% to 34% with 20% uncommitted. The gap was slightly larger than in 2005 when the figures were 46-35-19%. But that difference is statistically insignificant. The most interesting figure, suggesting that there are opportunities for both sides in this debate, is that 20% of Australians are uncommitted. That is a huge figure representing an enormous percentage of the population.

But there is much more to be learnt from the poll. The poll divides the responses by age, sex and party choice as well as strength of opinion. The most interesting figures for students of generations are the ones by age.

In one sense age is not so important because it shows equal relative support for the republic among everyone under 50. Republicans have just as big a lead, 19%, over monarchists among 18-34 year olds as among 35-49 year olds. In both cases the contrast is enormous though with those 50 and over. Older Australians (50+) are equally divided on the issue (43-43-14%). That is where the deadlock about change is located.

In another sense age is everything. There are very few strong monarchists (those with strongly anti-republican views) in the 18-34 year age group. Only 10% of the 18-34 year old group is strongly monarchist. Whereas, 18% of 35-49 year olds are strongly against a republic. And wait for it, 28% of 50 year olds and above are strongly against a republic. The monarchists are shrinking at a rapid rate generation by generation.

By comparison with republicans there are very few strong monarchists in the younger age group. 23% of 18-34 year olds are strongly in favour of a republic, while only 10% are strongly against. That's a very strong basis of activist support for the republican movement.

However, before republicans get too excited and start to talk about an inevitable republic, the news is not all good. The really distinguishing feature of young Australians is not the fact that there are more than double the number of republicans with strong commitment compared to monarchists, but the fact that an extraordinarily large number are uncommitted. In fact, 29% of the youngest age group are uncommitted.

The big question then is, why that is so? That takes us back to analysis of the X and Y generations. Rebecca Huntley's recent book, "The World According to Y", suggests some ideas. According to Huntley, Yers have deferred commitment about many things, including life and work choices. Generation Y have also turned away from national politics in droves, preferring the local and the international. Without change in our political system linking national politics to international and local concerns the process of alienation will continue unabated. According to Huntley, "Politicians will remain ageing aliens and political parties and processes will become part of a galaxy far, far away."

Where does that leave republicans? It leaves the movement reliant on a greater understanding of what makes the younger generations tick. Republicans can't rely just on their huge lead among activists and among the 70% committed. They must continue to search for the key to unlocking the hearts and minds of the uncommitted. There is not much opposition there, but there is lack of commitment. That lack of commitment shouldn't be criticized, but engaged with on its own terms, something governments and parties and established NGO groups are dismally failing to do so far.

Young people are not apathetic, insists the Sydney political scientist, Ari Vromen, but they are sick of being patronized by their elders and pushed into conservative political frameworks not of their own choosing. Young people are active enough politically but not in the traditional ways that their elders expect.

The idea of a plebiscite to choose the type of republic to go to a referendum should appeal to these younger Australians. According to Huntley, "This is a generation that doesn't just value direct democracy and freedom of choice: it takes it for granted."

John Warhurst is the immediate past Chair of the Australian Republican Movement