Conservative voters favour direct election
In 1999 Prime Minister Howard made it clear that, though he did not want a republic, the Parliamentary-selection ‘model’ that was proposed was, to him, the least unacceptable model of a republic. One might naturally expect that the voters who habitually vote for the PM’s party and its coalition ally also felt that this was the least unacceptable model, and that if they voted ‘No’ to the model being offered in 1999 they would be even more likely to vote ‘No’ to a more ‘radical’ model.
However, the best available evidence shows exactly the reverse – if voters who identify themselves as Liberal Party or National Party voters are ever to vote ‘Yes’ to a republic, it will be when they are offered a republic where the people directly elect the President. Conservative voters’ preferences as to a republic are totally different from the leading conservative politicians’ preferences.